Will an acceleration in growth lead to a pick-up in inflation?

As the fall in US inflation slows and economic growth starts to rebound, the question arises: can inflation continue to cool as growth rebounds? The March US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reading moved above 50, indicating expansion. With inflation not yet at the Fed’s target and the economy already reaccelerating, rate cuts could further stimulate growth. How inflationary could this be?
 

Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve

To look at this question, we have compared the US manufacturing PMI to the change in inflation over each subsequent six month period for each monthly PMI reading over the past 50 years.

Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve

There is a strong relationship between growth, as measured by the PMI and subsequent changes in inflation, although this relationship mainly occurs at the extremes. This relationship is also stronger when considering headline inflation as opposed to core inflation.

Historically, PMIs of about 50 have, on average, seen the inflation rate stay flat over the subsequent six-month period. This data seems to suggest that growth acceleration is likely to challenge the moderation of inflation towards the Fed’s 2% target.

Currently, this effect may be small, however, if the economic expansion picks up pace and PMIs start moving towards 55 and above, historic experience suggests that it is likely that inflation will reaccelerate.

Our Market Snippets aim to provide concise insight into our investment research process. Each week, we highlight one chart that showcases our research, motivates our current positioning, or simply presents something interesting we’ve discovered in global financial markets.

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ExploreDateFund Fact SheetTransactional Form
Capped SWIX FundJune 2024
Equity Prime Fund (Unit Trust)June 2024
SWIX FundJune 2024
ExploreDateFund Fact SheetTransactional Form
CPI + 4% Prime Fund (Unit Trust)June 2024
Domestic CPI +4% FundJune 2024
Global Balanced FundJune 2024
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Bond CompositeJune 2024
Money Market Prime Fund (Unit Trust)June 2024
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Bond CompositeJune 2024

Mergence was a pioneer in impact and infrastructure investing, with a rich history showcasing the advantages of uncorrelated alternative investments. We strongly advocate for the potential of these investments to deliver consistent long-term returns while making a positive social impact. Our diverse portfolio encompasses a wide range of debt and equity asset classes carefully chosen from sectors that global and national organisations have identified as high-priority areas.

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Equity FundsJune 2024
ExploreDateFund Fact Sheet
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Bond CompositeJune 2024

Bond Composite

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This Fund aims to invest in a diversified combination of infrastructure risk-adjusted returns, whilst supporting the development of both social and economic infrastructure services. The Fund forms part of the Mergence suite of impact funds. The Fund strives to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns over that of the FTSE/JSE All Bond Index (ALBI).

Fund Managers:

Mohamed Ismail
Head: Fixed Income
Fazila Manjoo
Portfolio Manager
Kasief Isaacs
Head: Private Markets
Fund Factsheet

Debt Fund

Objective

The Mergence Infrastructure & Development | Debt Fund has a long-term performance target of inflation +4% per annum over the medium to long term by investing in opportunities that create both a positive and measurable social, developmental, and/or environmental impact.

Fund Managers:

Kasief Isaacs
Head: Private Markets
Chito Siame
Investment Principal
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Equity Funds

Objective

The objective of these Funds is to support economic growth and infrastructure development while yielding sound returns to investors. The Funds invest in unlisted equity and quasi-equity, such as mezzanine debt, infrastructure, and developmental assets. The Mergence Infrastructure & Development | Equity Fund II is structured as a close-ended en commandite partnership and is open for investment.

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Kasief Isaacs
Head: Private Markets
Chito Siame
Investment Principal
Fund Factsheet

Renewable Energy Debt Fund

Objective

The objective of this Fund is to provide commercially viable investments into the renewable energy sector enabling investors to achieve targeted investment returns together with social and environmental impact. Through both these Funds, we are invested in 13 renewable energy projects within Southern Africa, across both wind and solar. Fund II is open for investment.

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Kasief Isaacs
Head: Private Markets
Chito Siame
Investment Principal
Fund Factsheet

Bond Composite

Objective

This Fund aims to invest in a diversified combination of infrastructure risk-adjusted returns, whilst supporting the development of both social and economic infrastructure services. The Fund forms part of the Mergence suite of impact funds. The Fund strives to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns over that of the FTSE/JSE All Bond Index (ALBI).

Fund Managers:

Mohamed Ismail
Head: Fixed Income
Fazila Manjoo
Portfolio Manager
Kasief Isaacs
Head: Private Markets
Fund Factsheet

Our specialist equity mandates aim to provide investors with capital growth over the long term. The key objective of these mandates is to consistently achieve returns that are in excess of the respective benchmarks over any rolling three-year period, without exposing the client to excessive risk. We embrace a style-agnostic approach and have a strong bias towards quality at a reasonable price.

Capped SWIX Fund

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The objective of these mandates is to achieve returns that are in excess of the FTSE/JSE Capped Shareholder Weighted Index (Capped SWIX) over any three-year rolling period without exposing the Fund to excessive risk. These core mandates target maximum active returns relative to tracking error volatility.

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Peter Takaendesa
Head: Equities
Izak Van Niekerk
Portfolio Manager
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Equity Prime Fund (Unit Trust)

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Head: Equities
Izak Van Niekerk
Portfolio Manager
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SWIX Fund

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Izak Van Niekerk
Portfolio Manager
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Fazila Manjoo
Portfolio Manager
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Brad Preston
Chief Investment Officer
Mohamed Ismail
Head: Fixed Income
Fazila Manjoo
Portfolio Manager
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This Regulation 28-compliant mandate aims to generate stable long-term returns through exposure to a broadly diversified set of asset classes including equities, listed property, conventional bonds, and inflation-linked bonds, both domestically and internationally. It is managed with the objective of producing a real return in excess of 5% per annum above inflation. Derivatives may be used for the purposes of hedging or return enhancement. The inclusion of international assets broadens diversification and should enhance risk adjusted returns.

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Brad Preston
Chief Investment Officer
Mohamed Ismail
Head: Fixed Income
Fazila Manjoo
Portfolio Manager
Fund Factsheet
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Bond Composite

Objective

This Fund aims to invest in a diversified combination of infrastructure risk-adjusted returns, whilst supporting the development of both social and economic infrastructure services. The Fund forms part of the Mergence suite of impact funds. The Fund strives to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns over that of the FTSE/JSE All Bond Index (ALBI).

Fund Managers:

Mohamed Ismail
Head: Fixed Income
Fazila Manjoo
Portfolio Manager
Kasief Isaacs
Head: Private Markets
Fund Factsheet

Money Market Prime Fund (Unit Trust)

Objective

This portfolio aim to consistently outperform the benchmark over a 12-month rolling period while providing liquidity at a low level of risk. This well-diversified portfolio implement a range of South African money market instruments.

Fund Managers:

Mohamed Ismail
Head: Fixed Income
Fund Factsheet
Transactional Form
Mergence provides access to a specialist range of hybrid fixed-income solutions that are backed by a robust investment process. Our products are designed to deliver a high level of interest income with a low probability of capital loss, dynamic returns tailor-made to any risk preference, and diversification when it matters most.

Bond Composite

Objective

This Fund aims to invest in a diversified combination of infrastructure risk-adjusted returns, whilst supporting the development of both social and economic infrastructure services. The Fund forms part of the Mergence suite of impact funds. The Fund strives to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns over that of the FTSE/JSE All Bond Index (ALBI).

Fund Managers:

Mohamed Ismail
Head: Fixed Income
Fazila Manjoo
Portfolio Manager
Kasief Isaacs
Head: Private Markets
Fund Factsheet

Mergence is an independent asset management firm with a strong 18-year track record. We were founded in 2004 and have successfully grown our offering to a diverse product range across both public and private market investments, spanning specialist equity and fixed income, multi-asset, infrastructure, debt and private equity funds.

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Lizeka Matshekga

Non-Executive Director

B Com Hons (Finance)

Masters (Development Finance)

Lizeka Matshekga is currently the MD: Investments at Harith General Partners, a Pan African Infrastructure Financier and Developer. She joined Harith in 2020 having formerly been the Divisional Executive at the Industrial Development (IDC). She has over 26 years’ diverse financial services industry experience
of which 14 years spent in the development finance environment. Her experience covers asset management, treasury, investment banking and development finance at executive leadership level. She is a seasoned board member in several South African and Multinational companies including Mergence Investment Managers.

Sipho Makhubela

Non-Executive Director

CA(SA)

MBA

Advanced Management Programme (Harvard)

Sipho Makhubela is a seasoned investment professional with proven industry leadership and over 20 years of experience in financial services. Prior to joining Harith, he worked for Investec Bank, Coronation Capital and African Merchant Bank in South Africa, focusing on aircraft financing, plant and equipment financing, and various acquisition finance transactions. Sipho joined Harith in 2007 as an Investment Director and was soon promoted to head up the US$630 million Pan African Investment Development Fund 1. He later transitioned into the role of MD: Investments and was appointed CEO of Harith in September 2020. He has invested in and grown business across the continent in countries such as Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Cote d’Ivore, amongst others and across various sectors including ICT, Transport and Energy. He currently sits on the board of directors at Mergence Investment Managers.

Masimo Magerman

Non-Executive Chairman, Mergence Group

Bachelor of Management Science (Finance)

MBA (Finance)

Masimo co-founded Mergence Africa Holdings in 2004 with the vision to create a world-class diversified group. With R42 billion in assets under management, the group spans asset management, derivatives trading, property, and industrial holdings. The primary subsidiary is Mergence Investment Managers, with a dual capability across Public and Private investment markets. Masimo is an entrepreneur by nature and believes fervently in “creating shared value”.

Fabian de Beer

Chief Risk Officer

BCom (Accounting & Economics)

H.Dip.Ed

Fabian joined Mergence in 2006 with over 34 years’ experience in financial services, specialising in  investment and macro strategy. Fabian’s primary focus is on investment risk, compliance and regulatory matters across Public and Private markets. He serves on the Mergence Board as well as the in-country Boards where Mergence operates. He has held senior and executive management positions at major SA banks and retirement funds.

Maserame Mouyeme

Independent Non-executive Director

BSc

MBA

Maserame Mouyeme has 25 years’ experience Africa-wide in senior executive leadership roles, including at Coca Cola, Old Mutual and one of Africa’s largest advertising groups. Further, at the Board level, she has 20 years’ experience in the private, public and NGO sectors. Maserame is passionate about sustainability, branding, public affairs, change management, public policy and businesswomen development. She has qualifications from the University of Cape Town, University of West London, Harvard and Cambridge.

Nyonga Fofang

Independent Non-Executive Director

BA (Political Science)

Executive MBA

Nyonga Fofang, Independent Non-Executive Director at Mergence, has 25+ years of capital markets experience, specialising in private equity, M&A, leveraged finance, and general management. He co-founded and leads Bambili Group Investment Pty Ltd, a pan-African investment holding company. Nyonga also serves as a director at SourceTrace LLC in Boston. He began as a closed-end fund Equity Analyst at PaineWebber Inc. and holds degrees from Harvard University and UC Louvain.

Sholto Dolamo

Managing Director, Mergence Investment Managers

BSc (Chemistry)

BTech (Ceramic Science) 

MSc (Engineering)

MBA (Administration)

Sholto joined Mergence in July 2022. He has more than 15 years’ experience in financial services with a focus on strategic leadership, product innovation, and research across all asset classes in Public and Private markets. He held various senior roles at the Public Investment Corporation including Acting Chief Investment Officer. Before entering the financial services sector, Sholto pursued a specialised career in resources and precious metals.

Sholto Dolamo

Managing Director, Mergence Investment Managers

BSc (Chemistry)

BTech (Ceramic Science) 

MSc (Engineering)

MBA (Administration)

Sholto joined Mergence in July 2022. He has more than 15 years’ experience in financial services with a focus on strategic leadership, product innovation, and research across all asset classes in Public and Private markets. He held various senior roles at the Public Investment Corporation including Acting Chief Investment Officer. Before entering the financial services sector, Sholto pursued a specialised career in resources and precious metals.

Semoli Mokhanoi

Director: SADC, Head: Business Development & Marketing

BCom (Accounting)

BCom Hons (Financial Planning)

MBA (Strategy)

CFP®

General Tax Professional (GTP-SA)

Semoli joined Mergence in 2017 as Regional Investments Strategist. He has 20 years’ experience, including as a fund accountant, investment consultant and business development executive. With a strong network of contacts throughout the Southern African Development Community (SADC), he is also a non-executive director on several company boards.

Brad Preston

Chief Investment Officer

BSc (Mathematics & Statistics)

MSc (Financial Mathematics)

Brad joined Mergence soon after its inception in 2006. As an investment analyst, portfolio manager and former Joint MD at Mergence, he has experience in derivatives, absolute return, and specialist equities, as well as leadership. In 2021 he was appointed as Chief Investment Officer.

Karen Wagner

HR Executive

Diploma (HR Management & Training)

Karen joined Mergence in February 2014 as Office Manager. In December 2017, she was promoted to HR Manager. Karen has 27 years of experience in office management and finance, having worked at several large corporates before joining Mergence. In acknowledgement of the importance of our people, Karen was appointed to the executive committee of Mergence Investment Managers in October 2022.

John Afordofe

Chief Financial Officer

BCom (Accounting)

PGDip (Accounting)

CA(SA)

John joined Mergence in November 2018 as General Manager: Operations. He was promoted to Chief Operating Officer in 2019. In September 2021 his role at Mergence was specialised into Chief Financial Officer as part of high-level changes to the Mergence executive leadership team to meet the company’s strong growth.

Peter Takaendesa

Head: Equities

BCom Hons (Economics)

MCom (Economics)

MCom (Finance & Econometrics)

Peter joined Mergence in 2014 as a Senior Equity Investment Analyst specialising in the TMT sector. He became a portfolio manager in 2016 and head of the listed equities team in 2019. Peter has over 15 years’ experience in the financial services industry, having worked for several global investment banks. He won ABSIP equity analyst of the year in 2011 and has worked as a university lecturer in economics.

Izak Van Niekerk

Portfolio Manager

BAcc Hons

CA(SA)

Izak brings over 15 years of financial services experience to his role as Portfolio Manager at Mergence. He co-managed portfolios from November 2019 to December 2022, having joined the team in 2011 as an equity research analyst and dealer. His current focus encompasses resources, beverages, luxury goods, and healthcare. His background extends to being an investment committee member in private markets and an audit manager at PwC prior to joining Mergence.

Salome Maruma

Senior Investment Analyst

BCom Hons (Financial Management)

In 2023, Salome re-joined Mergence as a Senior Investment Analyst, having worked in the company in a trainee capacity before. With a focus on the retail and industrial sectors, Salome brings valuable experience from previous roles at local asset managers and a global investment bank over an eight-year career in the financial services industry.

Malose Mamashela

Investment Analyst

BCom (Financial Analysis & Portfolio Management)

MSc (Chemical Engineering)

Malose joined Mergence in 2022 as an Investment Analyst. With 20 years of experience, she has a solid background in chemical engineering and financial analysis. Malose previously worked as a process engineer at Sasol, Project Services Group, and Chevron. She also served as a sell-side equity research analyst at Primaresearch. Additionally, she has lectured in her field at the CPUT and provided consultation to 4th-year Design Course students at UCT.

Radebe Sipamla

Senior Investment Analyst

BCom (Economics Science & Business Finance)

Radebe joined Mergence in March 2021 as Investment Analyst in the Public Markets equity team based in Johannesburg. He currently covers banks, insurance, and other financials. With five years of experience, Radebe has in-depth sector knowledge across SADC, most notably in the banking, precious metals, and telecom sectors. In 2017 he won the ABSIP award for Research Analyst of the Year.

Keagan Martin

Investment Analyst

BCom Hons (Finance/Investments), BCom (Economics and Finance) 

Keagan Martin joined Mergence in 2021 as a Client Relationship Manager, following his experience at Prudential Investment Managers. In 2023, he transitioned into an Investment Analyst role in the public markets’ investment team, where he now specialises in small to mid-cap industrials and food producers. 

Mohamed Ismail

Head: Fixed Income

BSc (Actuarial Science & Mathematical Statistics)

BSc Hons (Advanced Mathematics of Finance)

Exec Masters (Finance)

CFA® Charterholder

Mohamed joined Mergence in March 2021 as Head of Fixed Income: Multi-Asset Class. He has 14 years of experience. Mohamed is responsible for a stand-alone fixed-income product and integrating a fixed-income investment process into the overall multi-asset strategy. He is the primary portfolio manager for the Mergence Composite Bond Fund and lead investment manager for the Money Market and Multi-Asset Income portfolios.

Fazila Manjoo

Portfolio Manager

BSc (Actuarial Science)

PGDip (Management in Actuarial Science)

Fazila joined Mergence in September 2020 as a Portfolio Manager in the Multi-Asset team. She has over 19 years of experience in the financial services industry, and a passion for research, technology, and sustainability. At Mergence, she is responsible for developing quantitative and systematic strategies across global equity, balanced and absolute return funds.

Unathi Hewana

Investment Analyst

BCom Hons (Financial Analysis & Portfolio Management)

BSc Hons (Biotechnology)

Unathi joined the Mergence Public Markets Investment team in July 2020 as an Investment Analyst in the Multi-Asset team. She has ten years of asset management experience and is completing her BCom Master’s degree in Applied Finance at UCT. Her primary focus at Mergence is a top-down and bottom-up analysis of the South African property sector.

Thabiso Mgwambane

Investment Graduate

BSc Hons (Physics)

Thabiso Mgwambane joined the Mergence Public Markets Investment team in July 2023 as an Investment graduate. With a BSc Honors degree in Physics and currently pursuing a Master’s degree in Astrophysical Sciences, he brings advanced computational and mathematical programming skills, as well as proficiency in analytical and quantitative methodologies.

Morgan Mlambo

Head: Investment Risk & Analytics

BSc (Mathematics & Statistics)

BSc Hons (Mathematics of Finance)

Financial Risk Manager (FRM)

MBA

Morgan joined Mergence in 2018. He has over 15 years of experience in the financial services industry. At Mergence, he has oversight on the generation and monitoring of investment risk metrics for Mergence portfolios including performance metrics, market risk, etc. In addition, he also has oversight on the compliance function pertaining to the Public Markets portfolios.

Jeandre van Jaarsveldt

Investment Analyst: Investment Risk & Analytics

BCom (Economics, Risk, and Investment Management)

Jeandre joined Mergence in 2023 as an Investment Risk & Analytics analyst, bringing three years of industry experience. Notably, he honed his analytical skills and became the youngest team leader at Burgiss during his tenure as a Private Equity Data Analyst. His strength lies in working with databases and excelling at identifying errors and outliers through data manipulation.

Nicolai De Greef

Trader

BCom (Finance & Investment Management)

Nicolai joined Mergence 2019 as a Trader. He has 14 years of experience in financial services, both in London and Cape Town, including in equity dealing, client relationship management, hedge fund administration, and fund accounting. At Mergence, Nicolai is responsible for executing equity trades for the Public Markets team as well as managing broker relationships.

Kasief Isaacs

Head: Private Markets

BCom Hons

CA(SA)

Kasief joined Mergence in 2015. He has 17 years of experience in the financial services industry. As Senior Investment Principal he has a specific focus on energy, infrastructure, and impact within SA and SADC. He leads the Private Markets investment team which has built up a stellar performance record over the past decade. Kasief has prior extensive international and local experience in SA’s renewable energy market. He is an experienced conference speaker and media commentator.

Chito Siame

Investment Principal

BSc Hons

MCom (Financial Management)

ACCA

Chito joined Mergence in 2011 as Equity Analyst in the Public Markets team focused on FMCG, hospitality, financial services, and telecommunications before transitioning to the Private Markets investment team in 2015. As Investment Principal, Chito focuses on Private Market investment opportunities within SADC. He has led transactions in the aquaculture and microfinancing sectors and serves on the boards of several investee companies.

Mosa Molebatsi

Senior Investment Associate

BCom (Actuarial Science, Quantitative Finance)

BCom Hons (Finance)

MPhil (Development Finance)

CFA® Charterholder

Mosa joined Mergence in 2023 as a Senior Investment Associate in the Private Markets team. Previously, she worked at the International Finance Corporation, the Public Investment Corporation, and Momentum Metropolitan Holdings in various investment roles. She is also involved in lecturing and foundation trustee work.

Tshepiso Appie

Investment Associate

BBusSci Hons

Tshepiso is an Investment Associate at Mergence Investment Managers. He joined the Johannesburg team in 2018 after a 3-year tenure in the middle-markets private equity team of a listed, blue-chip asset manager. With a diverse range of expertise, Tshepiso has successfully facilitated deals across multiple sectors at Mergence, including affordable housing, medicinal cannabis, primary healthcare, agri-finance, specialised healthcare, waste management, secondary mining, student accommodation, financial inclusion, and fintech.

Rizaan Samuels

Investment Associate

BSc (Finance & Accounts)

PGDip (Accounting)

CA(SA)

Rizaan joined Mergence in 2022 as an Investment Associate. He is a trained investment professional with extensive post-qualification experience in investment banking, asset management, and renewable energy debt investment. He is responsible for the origination and execution of deals in the SADC region for Mergence’s Equity and Debt funds, with a focus on infrastructure finance, renewable energy, and other clean energy investment opportunities.

Hileni Nghinaunye

Portfolio Manager

BBusSc

PGDip (Investment & Portfolio Management)

Hileni joined Mergence Unlisted Investment Managers (Namibia) as a Portfolio Manager in 2017. She has 15 years of experience in financial services. At Mergence she has transacted on and overseen infrastructure and impact investments on behalf of Namibia’s largest retirement fund, including three renewable energy projects, and a bulk infrastructure/land servicing project.

Linkeng Debra Letsaba

Trainee Investment Analyst

BCom (Investment Management & Banking)

BCom Hons (Financial Economics & Investment Management)

Linkeng joined Mergence Investment Managers (Lesotho) in 2022 as a Trainee Investment Analyst as part of our bigger Private Markets investment team. Her role encompasses assisting with the origination of opportunities and guiding them through the investment process, to implementation. Linkeng has team leadership skills, having been an SRC exco member at university.

Ntsbeng Chabeli

Property Analyst

BA (Economics)

PGDip (Property Management & Development)

MCom (Finance & Investments)

Ntsebeng joined Mergence Investment Managers (Lesotho) as a Property Analyst in 2022. She has five years of experience, including time spent as a real estate specialist and data analyst. Her responsibilities at Mergence include analysing the economic drivers of the commercial property portfolio and assessing the financial opportunity for existing and potential property investments.

Nandipha Kenqa

Risk Manager

BCom (Financial Accounting)

PGDip (Accounting)

CA(SA)

Nandipha joined Mergence as a Risk Manager in the Private Markets investment team in June 2017. She has six years of experience working as an external and internal investment auditor. Nandipha’s responsibilities at Mergence include ensuring that governance, risk, and control frameworks are effective and that all investment activities, across all markets, sectors, and deals, are in accordance with applicable legislation, regulation, and client mandates.

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Lizeka Matshekga

Non-Executive Director
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Sipho Makhubela

Non-Executive Director
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Masimo Magerman

Non-Executive Chairman, Mergence Group
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Fabian de Beer

Chief Risk Officer
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Maserame Mouyeme

Independent Non-executive Director
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Nyonga Fofang

Independent Non-Executive Director
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Sholto Dolamo

Managing Director, Mergence Investment Managers
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Sholto Dolamo

Managing Director, Mergence Investment Managers
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Semoli Mokhanoi

Director: SADC, Head: Business Development & Marketing
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Brad Preston

Chief Investment Officer
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Karen Wagner

HR Executive
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John Afordofe

Chief Financial Officer
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Peter Takaendesa

Head: Equities
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Izak Van Niekerk

Portfolio Manager
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Salome Maruma

Senior Investment Analyst
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Malose Mamashela

Investment Analyst
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Radebe Sipamla

Senior Investment Analyst
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Investment Analyst
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Mohamed Ismail

Head: Fixed Income
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Fazila Manjoo

Portfolio Manager
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Unathi Hewana

Investment Analyst
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Thabiso Mgwambane

Investment Graduate
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Morgan Mlambo

Head: Investment Risk & Analytics
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Jeandre van Jaarsveldt

Investment Analyst: Investment Risk & Analytics
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Nicolai De Greef

Trader
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Kasief Isaacs

Head: Private Markets
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Chito Siame

Investment Principal
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Mosa Molebatsi

Senior Investment Associate
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Investment Associate
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Investment Associate
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Hileni Nghinaunye

Portfolio Manager
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Linkeng Debra Letsaba

Trainee Investment Analyst
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Property Analyst
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Nandipha Kenqa

Risk Manager