With just over half of the voting districts counted in the 2024 South African general election, it is clear that South Africa is heading into an era of coalition politics. The market focus will now start to shift from the results to the potential coalitions.
Using News24’s current national and provincial projections, we examine some coalition combinations, assuming the ANC selects the same coalition partners both nationally and at the provincial level.
Source: News24
With the two large caveats that the final vote is not complete, the above analysis is based on projections, and that the ANC does not need to choose the same partner at the national and provincial levels. The analysis shows that the ANC-IFP coalition, which the market seemed to favour going into the election, will not secure a majority of the national vote and would only control five provinces.
It also indicates that a broad coalition of smaller parties led by the ANC should still achieve a majority in parliament, though it would require at least five, if not more, parties to join. An ANC-DA-IFP coalition would control all nine provinces and achieve a two-thirds majority, but this may be politically difficult, if not impossible, to achieve.
We believe this situation is likely to result in a tense week or two for SA markets, but we remain hopeful that a reasonably market-friendly coalition that ensures policy stability and continued positive reform can be reached.
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